What Sellers Should Expect in 2026: A Realistic Market Outlook for Founder-Led Businesses
As 2025 winds down and we look ahead to 2026, business owners considering a transition face a market that is nuanced—but filled with opportunity for the right companies.
1. High-quality businesses are still trading at strong multiples.
Despite rising rates and geopolitical uncertainty, valuation data remains resilient. The 2025 Citrin Cooperman Report notes an increase in valuations and up from prior years, reflecting a flight to quality and an increase in competition for durable, well-run companies.
2. Prepared sellers will outperform.
Clean financials, documented processes, strong customer diversification, and a tight operating model will command meaningful premium in 2026.
i.e. Readiness = a bump in valuation.
3. Rollover equity remains a powerful tool.
The McGuireWoods study highlights that 70% of independent sponsor deals include seller rollover, often on equal footing with new investor equity. This structure lets owners take meaningful chips off the table while participating in the next chapter of growth and often getting a “second bite of the apple”.
4. Creative structures will define 2026 transactions.
Expect more:
Earnouts tied to customer retention or growth
Seller notes at attractive rates
Equity incentives for next-generation leaders
Independent sponsors excel in these scenarios because they are not forced into rigid fund templates. Transactions are designed around the seller’s goals—not a predetermined structure.
For founders heading into 2026, the takeaway is simple:
The market is stable, capital is available, and opportunities are strong—especially for companies that prepare early and choose partners aligned with their vision.
